UK 10-year gilt yields slipped to 4.53% as investors awaited the Nov. 26 budget. Finance minister Rachel Reeves is expected to find tens of billions of pounds to meet her fiscal rules, and the OBR is set to cut growth and productivity forecasts, creating a £20–30 billion hole in the public finances. Recent data underscore the challenge: borrowing is at a record high outside the pandemic, business activity has stalled, retail sales slumped and household sentiment weakened. Inflation eased to 3.6% in October, boosting expectations that the Bank of England will resume rate cuts. Markets now price an 80% chance of a 25-bp cut in December, helping push gilt yields lower ahead of the budget.
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