The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held around 4.41% on Friday, hovering near eight-month highs, supported by heightened uncertainties over the Middle East conflict and its effects on oil prices, inflation, and economic growth. Recent reports indicate the Pentagon is considering sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the region, providing the White House with more leverage in negotiations. Meanwhile, President Trump extended the deadline to strike Iranian energy infrastructure by 10 days and noted that Iran had allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz this week as a “present” to the US. Conflict-related disruptions have pushed energy prices higher, fueling inflation fears and reinforcing hawkish expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Markets now price in nearly a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike by December, a sharp reversal from earlier expectations of two rate cuts this year.
