The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 3 basis points to around 4.13% on Monday amid signs that a deal may be emerging to end the record-long government shutdown. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Sunday that a federal budget agreement is taking shape, potentially reopening the government through January and reversing some recent federal layoffs. Reports also suggested that some Democrats could back the package even without extending health care subsidies, though uncertainty remains high. Weak US economic data last week added to market jitters, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index falling to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years and the Challenger report showing a surge in October job cuts. In monetary policy, markets remain divided on a potential Fed rate cut in December, with traders pricing in roughly a 67% chance of a quarter-point reduction, unchanged from Friday.
