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Bonds

US 10Y Yield Hits Highest Since January 2025

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed to around 4.78% on Tuesday, reaching its highest level since January 2025 as rising oil prices and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve strengthened expectations for a rate hike this month. Investors also braced for a busy economic calendar, with the latest US manufacturing and services activity data due later today, ahead of the highly anticipated August jobs report on Friday. Warsh said on Friday that the Fed will “have work to do” if policymakers lack the confidence they need that inflation is moving toward 2%. Markets are now pricing in a more than 65% chance of a September hike, up from around 36% before his remarks. Meanwhile, oil prices advanced for a second straight day after US forces struck an island in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran responded with attacks on the UAE and Jordan. Higher energy costs are fueling inflation concerns and strengthening expectations for tighter Fed policy.

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