Global Markets
S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
NASDAQ 100 — Tech Growth Index
Dow Jones — Industrial Average
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
NASDAQ 100 — Tech Growth Index
Dow Jones — Industrial Average
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
AED • EUR • GBP • USD IBANs   |   CROSS BORDER FX   |   LOCAL CURRENCIES   |   GLOBAL COVERAGE
JPYTechnical AnalysisUSD

USD/JPY Price Forecast: 20-day EMA continues to act as key barrier

  • USD/JPY declines to near 159.00 amid hawkish BoJ expectations.
  • Investors keenly await the US PCE Inflation data for July.
  • The US core PCE Price Index is expected to have remained steady at 3.3% YoY.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with USD/JPY dropping 0.1% to near 159.00. The Asia-Pacific currency gains amid firm expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike policy rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.25% in the September meeting.

Strategists at Scotiabank note that domestic data have offered little fresh direction, with “fundamental releases…limited” even as “media are reporting of high-profile adjustments to BoJ forecasts as major banks shift their tightening calls to September.” They add that while markets have begun to reprice the near-term policy path, the “greater risk will center around the central bank’s tone as market participants look beyond the September 18 meeting,” suggesting that guidance on the trajectory of normalization may prove more market-moving than the decision itself.

Earlier in the day, the August 17-24 survey conducted by Reuters showed that 57% of economists expected the BoJ to raise its interest rates by 25 bps to 1.25% in September. This is a sharp turnaround from a July poll when just 5% expected an interest rate hike move

Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades lower ahead of the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for July, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

Inflation outlook steady as Wells Fargo sees only modest easing in PCE

Economists at Wells Fargo do not anticipate any major surprise on the inflation front in the July data. Drawing on the latest CPI and PPI reports, they note that these releases “point to a 0.1% gain in the PCE deflator in July, nudging the year-over-year rate down to 3.6%.” At the same time, Wells Fargo expects “core PCE inflation” to “rise 0.2% on the month, leaving the annual rate at 3.3%,” reinforcing the view that price pressures are easing only gradually rather than falling sharply.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.08, holding a bearish near-term bias as spot remains capped beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 159.46. The pair has retreated from recent highs and now sits under this short-term trend gauge, suggesting topside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 44 leans slightly negative but is not oversold.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 159.46, and a daily close above this level would be needed to ease the current downside bias and allow a recovery toward higher levels. With no nearby technical supports derived from the provided dataset, the pair appears vulnerable as long as it trades below 159.46, leaving price action driven by whether sellers can extend the decline or buyers manage to reclaim the EMA barrier.

Register a Revolut Business Account
```

Market Analysis & Disclaimer

The market information, analysis, commentary, forecasts and opinions contained in this publication are provided by Octalas Group Ltd on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger using information and data obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, Octalas Group Ltd, Today Markets and Currency Hedger do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information presented and accept no responsibility for any loss or damage arising from reliance upon information contained herein, to the extent permitted by applicable law.

Market forecasts, expectations and opinions are based on analysis of available information and a number of assumptions regarding economic, financial, political and market conditions. Such assumptions may prove to be incorrect, and actual market developments may differ materially from those described or anticipated.

Nothing contained in this publication constitutes investment advice, financial advice, a personal recommendation, an offer, solicitation or invitation to buy, sell or otherwise transact in any financial instrument or investment product. The information is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation, experience or particular circumstances of any individual reader.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Financial markets, including foreign exchange, commodities, equities, derivatives and other financial instruments, involve risk and prices can move rapidly. Readers should conduct their own independent research and, where appropriate, obtain advice from an appropriately authorised financial professional before making any investment or trading decision.

Where this publication refers to Today Markets, it represents market news, research, analysis and commentary published for informational purposes. Where Currency Hedger is referenced, it represents commentary concerning foreign exchange, currency exposure, international payments and hedging-related topics. References to particular financial instruments, markets, companies, currencies or commodities should not be interpreted as a recommendation to transact in them.

Octalas Group Ltd, Today Markets and Currency Hedger may have commercial interests or relationships with businesses, financial-service providers, technology providers or other market participants mentioned in their publications. Where relevant, such relationships or interests may create potential conflicts of interest. Appropriate measures are intended to be taken to ensure that published analysis and commentary are presented objectively and that commercial considerations do not determine the substance of market analysis.

The views expressed in this publication are those of the author or contributors at the time of publication and may change without notice as market conditions develop. Readers should not assume that any information contained herein has been updated following publication.

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button