• WTI attracts some intraday sellers following a modest Asian session rise to a nearly one-month peak.
• Rising geopolitical tensions and Fed rate hike bets support the USD, capping gains for the commodity.
• Supply disruption worries should act as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices and help limit further losses.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – struggles to capitalize on modest Asian session gains to the $106.45 region, or a nearly four-week high, and retreats to the lower end of its daily range in the last hour. The commodity slips below the $104.00 mark in the last hour, though the downside potential seems limited amid supply concerns.

Rising geopolitical tensions, along with growing bets for an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), continue to act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD). A firmer buck caps the upside for the USD-denominated commodity. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump threatened to target Iran’s power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened on Tuesday, while Iran introduced new conditions for reopening the strategic waterway. This raises the risk of a further disruption to global trade routes and should act as a tailwind for the black liquid.

From a technical perspective, the near-term bias is bullish against the backdrop of last week’s rebound from the rising 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and a breakout beyond the 100.00 psychological mark. This keeps the broader uptrend intact despite recent volatility. Furthermore, the latest Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading has turned back up, with the line recovering into positive territory and the histogram improving, suggesting buyers are reasserting control after a brief loss of momentum.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 61 stays above its midline yet below overbought territory, indicating sustained upside pressure without signs of exhaustion. Hence, any subsequent pullback is likely to attract some buyers around $102.00, where recent intraday pullbacks have stabilized, followed by stronger support near $99.50. The rising 100-period EMA on the 4-hour chart, now clustered below $94.00, reinforces that deeper dips toward the low-$90s would be viewed as corrective while the indicator maintains its upward slope.

On the upside, initial resistance stands at the recent peak near $105.70, and a clear break above this area would open the way toward the $108.00 region next.

WTI 4-hour chart

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