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AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Retakes 110.00 on upbeat China GDP; upside seems limited
- AUD/JPY gains positive traction for the second straight day amid a combination of supporting factors.
- Hawkish comments from RBA’s Ken and China’s upbeat GDP report provide a goodish lift to the AUD.
- A cautious BoJ weighs on the JPY, though intervention risks could cap the cross amid a bearish setup.
The AUD/JPY cross attracts some follow-through buyers for the second straight day on Monday, recovering further from an eight-month low, around the 108.65-108.60 region, touched last week. Spot prices climbed back above the 110.00 psychological mark during the Asian session amid a combination of supporting factors.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) gets a minor lift in reaction to Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Chris Kent’s hawkish remarks and China’s better-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP), showing that the economy expanded by 4.5% YoY in the third quarter. The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, is undermined by cautious Bank of Japan (BoJ) expectations, acting as a tailwind for the AUD/JPY cross. Traders, however, remain on high alert that Japanese authorities might step in again to prop up the domestic currency. This, in turn, warrants some caution for bullish traders.
From a technical perspective, spot prices retain a bearish near-term bias beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and a dense Fibonacci retracement band overhead. This, in turn, suggests that rallies could be sold into despite a mildly constructive backdrop from the Relative Strength Index around 52 and a modestly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading. The AUD/JPY cross currently trades just under the 38.2% retracement at 110.17, and the next relevant hurdle is pegged near the 50.0% level at 110.63 ahead of the 200-period SMA at 110.93.
Further up, the 61.8% retracement at 111.10 could cap the currency pair ahead of 111.76 and 112.61. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 23.6% retracement near 109.59, with a break below exposing the recent swing low around 108.66 as the next significant bearish target.
AUD/JPY 4-hour chart
