• AUD/JPY weakens to near 113.95 in Thursday’s early European session. 
• The positive outlook of the cross remains intact above the 100-day EMA, with bullish RSI momentum. 
• The first upside barrier emerges at 115.60; the initial support level is seen at 113.09. 

The AUD/JPY cross attracts some sellers to around 113.95 during the early European session on Thursday. Uncertainty regarding Iran’s participation in further peace talks could provide some support to a safe-haven currency such as the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). 

Furthermore, intervention fears might cap the upside for the cross. Japanese authorities, including Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, highlighted a “high sense of urgency” regarding speculative and weak-JPY moves driven by Middle East tensions. 

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds well above the Bollinger middle band and the 100-period exponential moving average (EMA), keeping the near-term bias clearly bullish despite the recent pause. Price is stretching toward the upper Bollinger band resistance at 115.58, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 65.9 leans into overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is strong but vulnerable to bouts of consolidation.

On the topside, a decisive break above the upper Bollinger band at 115.60 would open the door to further gains and extend the prevailing uptrend. On the downside, initial support emerges the April 20 low of 113.09. The next contention level is located at the Bollinger middle band around 112.12, with deeper protection from the 100-period EMA at 108.73 and the lower Bollinger band at 108.65, where buyers would be expected to reappear on any sharper corrective pullback.

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