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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Struggles near 0.6950 as bears retain control below 100-EMA on H4
- AUD/USD struggles to capitalize on a modest Asian session uptick to the 0.6965 region.
- Escalating US-Iran tensions and Fed hike bets revive USD demand, capping spot prices.
- The bearish technical setup backs the case for a further near-term depreciating move.
The AUD/USD pair turns lower following a modest Asian session uptick to the 0.6965 region on Thursday amid the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) dip-buying. Spot prices, however, hold above an over two-week low, touched on Wednesday, and currently trade around mid-0.6900s, down less than 0.10% for the day.
The growing acceptance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates in 2026 amid inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices, along with escalating US-Iran tensions, helps revive demand for the safe-haven Greenback. Furthermore, soft Australian consumer inflation figures on Wednesday led to some unwinding of near-term Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike bets, which undermines the Australian Dollar (AUD) and contributes to capping the AUD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures near the 0.7020 horizontal resistance and the overnight close below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart favor bearish traders. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) drifts below the neutral 50 line and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays marginally below zero. Momentum indicators together hint at subdued bullish momentum and a corrective tone after recent losses.
However, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through weakness below the overnight swing low, around the 0.6925 region, and a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.6900 before positioning for further losses. The AUD/USD pair might then aim to challenge the June monthly swing low, around the 0.6865 zone, and extend the downfall further to the 0.6835 area, or the year-to-date low touched in March, and the 0.6800 round-figure mark.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 100-period EMA at 0.6974. A sustained move above this barrier would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way for a more constructive recovery. Until then, the AUD/USD pair remains vulnerable to further slippage, with traders likely to fade upticks while spot prices remain capped below the said EMA.
AUD/USD 4-hour chart
