United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note AUD/USD has retreated from a spike to 0.7197, with intraday action expected to stay in a 0.7130–0.7180 band. For the next 1–3 weeks, they still see upside risk, but stress that a daily close above 0.7190 is needed to open 0.7220, while 0.7085 acts as strong support for the bullish case.

Near-term consolidation but upside still favoured

“Yesterday, when AUD was at 0.7175, we highlighted that “the sharp rise appears to be excessive, but with no sign of a pause yet, AUD could test the significant resistance at 0.7190.” We also highlighted that “given the deeply overbought conditions, a continued rise above this level appears unlikely.” We were not wrong, as AUD rose to 0.7197 before pulling back.”

“While AUD could continue to pull back today, given that there is no clear increase in downward momentum, any decline is likely part of a lower range of 0.7130/0.7180.”

“Upward momentum has slowed somewhat, but as long as 0.7085 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) is not breached, there remains a chance for AUD to close above 0.7190.”

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