Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to 4.84 but remained near its highest level since July 2011, amid growing expectations of a follow-up rate hike next week. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on Tuesday that the surge in oil prices could push inflation above the central bank’s 4.2% forecast, warning that the war in the Middle East may force the RBA to raise interest rates within days. His remarks reinforced signals from Governor Michele Bullock, who said last week there is a “live” possibility of a rate increase, amid concerns that a prolonged spike in oil prices could make it harder to bring inflation under control. A rising number of economists now expect the RBA to deliver a 25 bps hike next week, followed by another increase in May to 4.35%, which would mark the highest level since February 2025. Markets are currently pricing in a 75% chance of a hike, up from less than 30% earlier this week, with about 60 bps of tightening implied for the rest of the year.

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