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Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH holds steady above $2,400 despite 25 bps rate hike
Ethereum price today: $2,440
- Ethereum has held above $2,400 despite witnessing two key bearish events in the Fed rate hike and the CLARITY Act’s failure.
- Buyers have regained control across spot and futures markets after brief selling dominance on Tuesday.
- ETH has recovered the 20-day EMA and $2,431 support level.
Ethereum (ETH) has shown strength over the past few days despite two key bearish events that, on normal occasions, should have sparked sharp declines.
ETH bulls show resilience in face of rate hike and Clarity Act failure
The Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, the first time in three years. The move pushed the federal funds target rate to 3.75-4.00%, as market participants largely anticipated. With both producer and consumer inflation ticking higher last week, investors had priced in the move as expectations of a hike jumped above 90% on the CME FedWatch tool before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sat down.
The FOMC reached the decision unanimously, with a 12-0 vote, and officials maintained that reducing inflation is their primary goal. Most officials expect one more rate hike before year-end.
Before the rate decision, the Clarity Act’s progress stalled in the Senate on Tuesday after it failed to secure the required 60 votes to invoke cloture. Market participants also largely expected the outcome, so the market impact was minimal.
Despite these moves, ETH has held its ground above $2,400. While the CLARITY Act decision initially pushed prices mildly lower, ETH has since shown strength, moving slightly higher as buyers regain control.
This is evident in the Exchange Netflow data, which shows outflows outpacing inflows by over 152,000 ETH on Tuesday, the highest since June, before a brief inflow dominance on Wednesday. The metric has again flipped to outflows over the past few hours.
Net outflows in exchanges indicate dominant buying activity and vice versa for inflows.
The Taker Buy Sell Ratio also paints a similar picture, flipping back into positive territory after a brief decline below 0 on Tuesday. The metric measures the proportion of buying relative to selling volumes of perpetual swap traders using market orders. Values above 1 show buy-side aggression is dominant, and values below 1 indicate sell-side aggression dominates.
Meanwhile, total ETH liquidations since both decisions are also indicating resilience from buyers. On Tuesday, ETH saw $221 million in liquidations, with longs accounting for 88%, per Coinglass data. However, liquidations over the past 24 hours reached $87.6 million, led by $45.4 million in short liquidations.
Ethereum open interest also held firm, hovering near 13 million ETH over the past two days, while funding rates have returned to positive territory after a brief negative flip.
The only side where a breakdown has continued is in US spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which shed $224.1 million on Wednesday, marking a second consecutive negative day after investors pulled out $141.4 million on Tuesday, according to SoSoValue data.
The trend across these data sets suggests seller exhaustion among traditional crypto investors, who continue to scoop the dip. But institutional selling from ETF investors leaves room for caution.
Ethereum technical outlook: ETH recovers 20-day EMA and $2,431 key level
ETH is up 1.7% over the past 24 hours as it reclaims the $2,431 horizontal level and the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), key support levels over the past month.
Momentum has cooled from prior overbought readings, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53 and the Stochastic at 26, suggesting a consolidative rather than exhausted tone.
On the downside, the next key supports are seen at the 50- and 200-day EMAs at $2,282 and $2,269. Below that, deeper support emerges at $2,172, the 100-day EMA at $2,163, and $1,961.
On the topside, immediate resistance aligns at $2,544, with further bullish extension likely to target $2,626 and then $2,786 if buyers can sustain price above the near-term moving average support band.
