US 10Y Yield Holds 2025 Peak

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to around 4.70% on Friday, marking its fifth consecutive gain and remaining at its highest level since January 2025 as President Donald Trump’s latest tariff package heightened concerns over worsening trade frictions between the US and its trading partners. Imports from countries including Mexico, Canada, the UK, and India will face 10% tariffs tied to alleged forced-labor concerns, while goods from the EU and Taiwan will generally be subject to a 10% duty. Moreover, products from Japan, South Korea, and Switzerland will face tariffs of up to 12.5%, with additional charges applying to selected goods. On the monetary policy front, surging energy prices stemming from escalating Middle East tensions, alongside resilient US labor market conditions reinforced expectations for tighter policy, with swap markets pricing in a 34% chance of a Fed rate hike next week, at least one increase by September, and another possible move before year-end.
