Commerzbank strategists note that Brent Oil dropped nearly 5%, reversing Monday’s gains, as hopes for a second round of US–Iran negotiations and International Energy Agency (IEA) warnings of demand destruction weighed on prices. The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) baseline still assumes Brent averages USD82 in 2026, but its adverse scenario envisions USD100 Oil and weaker global growth if the conflict persists.

Negotiation hopes clash with demand destruction

“Brent oil prices fell nearly 5% and reversed all of the gains on Monday.”

“At the same time, Brent oil prices are still up 31% compared to the start of the war and up 56% year-to-date.”

“The drop in crude was reinforced by the IEA’s assessment that the war will wipe out global oil demand growth for the first time since 2020, pointing to demand-destruction.”

“IMF’s current base case or “reference forecast” is a benign scenario that assumes a short-lived conflict and oil prices to normalize in H2 2026.”

“It assumes an average Brent oil price of USD82 for 2026.”

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