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Societe Generale’s commodities team has revised its Oil outlook, warning Brent could spike towards $150/bbl in a higher‑for‑longer scenario if the Strait of Hormuz is shut for two months. The bank raises its 2026 year‑end Brent forecast to $80/bbl from $65/bbl, citing large OPEC losses, tight inventories and only limited demand destruction.
Tight balances drive bullish outlook
“Our commodities team revised their oil forecasts and warn of the risk of $150/bbl in a higher-for-longer baseline scenario based on a two-month shutdown of Hormuz and lasting supply damage.”
“We lift our 2026 year-end Brent forecast to $80/bbl from $65/bbl. We assume OPEC losses of 15 mb/d in March and losses and adjustments in April result in an eventual deficit of 8mb/d by mid/late month.”
“We assume GCC output down by up to 3 mb/d through year-end. Iran loses 2 mb/d of export capacity for the rest of 2026. Additional OPEC supply returns gradually from May, alongside G7 SPR flows and resumed Chinese buying. Prices spike in April (~$125/bbl average with upside to $150/bbl) before easing to around $80/bbl by December.”
“But demand rising towards ~106 mb/d keeps days-cover below five-year norms, reinforcing a structurally tight market. Some demand destruction is taking place, but nowhere near enough to close the gap, and inventories won’t get back to five-year norms until year-end.”
