European natural gas futures fell to €54.3 per MWh but remained on track for their largest monthly gain since September 2021. Prices have surged more than 70% this month as the Middle East war prompted the closure of the Straiht of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global LNG flows, as well as the shutdown of the world’s largest LNG plant in Qatar.

The conflict has now stretched into its fifth week with no indication of de-escalation, heightening fears of a sustained disruption to supplies. President Trump warned that the US could target Iran’s electric plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island if a deal is not reached soon and if the Strait is not reopened. However, some upward pressure on prices has been tempered by milder weather forecasts and stronger renewable output in Europe, which are curbing demand for natural gas.

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