Societe Generale analysts note Brent has pulled back after forming a lower high and slipping under its 50-day moving average. They highlight nearby trend-line support around $91/90 and a deeper support zone near $86. While a brief rebound is possible, failure to reclaim the 50-DMA around $103 would keep downside risks in focus.

Watching $91/90 and $86 supports

“Brent recently carved out a lower high around $113 and gradually dipped below the 50-DMA (now at $103). It is in vicinity to the ascending trend line drawn since March at $91/90, which could be an interim support.”

“Below $91/90, next potential support could be located at the April low near $86.”

“A brief rebound cannot be ruled out however inability to overcome the moving average around $103 may denote risk of persistence in decline.”

“Markets would be wrongfooted if oil prices back up again as inventories dwindle and the ability of the market to absorb the imbalance is diminished.”

“One US oil major warned at the Bernstein conference last Thursday that they expect prices to rally into June, and certainly into July.”

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