S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
- GBP/USD flatlines near 1.3445 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Traders see 84.0% odds of a Fed hike in December.
- BoE’s Bailey says upside inflation risks remain a concern.
The GBP/USD pair holds steady around 1.3445 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data later in the day. Also, Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Sarah Breeden is set to speak.
Stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data have reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could keep interest rates higher for longer. This, in turn, could lift the Greenback in the near term.
Markets are now pricing in nearly an 84.0% chance that the Fed will raise rates in December, up from 72.8% before the US jobs report, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The US CPI inflation report will take center stage later on Tuesday. The headline CPI is expected to show a rise of 0.3% MoM in October. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is forecast to show an increase of 0.2%.
The report will not include an annual reading for October CPI because of the government shutdown a year ago, which prevented the BLS from collecting some data and compiling a full index level.
Last week, the BoE lifted its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.00%, marking its first rate increase in over three years. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized the war in the Middle East, which is pushing up energy prices, as the main factor in deciding future rates. Markets price in three more hikes by the end of next year, more than most economists expect.
UK rates steady as markets eye Bailey and key 3 data
Strategists at Societe Generale note that the UK rates market has opened on a stable footing, with the “10y IRS opens unchanged at 4.70% after holding 4.69% (100dma) last week.” They identify “support 4.58%, resistance 4.78%,” framing the immediate technical range as investors await policy signals. The bank highlights that Governor Bailey “speaks in Zurich later today, first intervention since the MPC rate increase week,” a appearance that could help shape expectations around the BoE’s reaction function.
On the data front, Societe Generale flags that “prel 3Q GDP on Thursday” will be a key domestic highlight, with the bank’s own “SG forecast 0.7% qoq.” More broadly, they describe a busy global calendar in the “week ahead,” pointing to “US CPI, PPI, Fed speak incl Waller and Williams. EU 3Q GDP second read. UK prel 3Q GDP. China trade balance. CPI for Mexico, Norway, Czech Republic, Hungary, India,” underscoring the dense run of releases that could influence global rate and FX markets.
BoE’s pill opens door to 2026 rate cuts as outlook uncertainty rises
Pill’s latest remarks score 4.2/10 on FXS Speechtracker, notably below the historic 6.4/10 baseline, signalling a softer and less conviction-driven tone. By stressing that “nothing is baked in” for next year and that there is “no preset upward path” for rates from spring, the speech marks a dovish shift versus past guidance that leaned more firmly toward keeping policy restrictive.
The explicit acknowledgement that Bank Rate could stay on hold or even fall if growth stalls, and that the key determinant will be margin squeeze on companies, reinforces a data-dependent and growth-sensitive stance. For GBP, this combination of heightened uncertainty and openness to cuts tilts risks toward a weaker path, as markets are encouraged to price out a sustained tightening bias and to focus instead on downside growth scenarios.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD keeps a bullish vibe above the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, GBP/USD maintains a modest bullish bias as spot holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band, suggesting underlying demand on shallow pullbacks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 57 stays in positive territory, hinting that upside momentum remains constructive while price consolidates just below the upper Bollinger band.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the upper Bollinger band near 1.3500, and a clear break above this ceiling would open the way for a stronger advance. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA around 1.3400, followed by the Bollinger midline near 1.3370, while the lower band around 1.3238 marks a deeper support zone if the current bullish structure were to unwind.
