Soybeans Face Pressure Ahead of USDA Reports as US Harvest Nears Completion

US soybean futures are under pressure heading into Tuesday’s trading session, with traders assessing export demand, the pace of the US harvest and expectations for updated USDA production estimates. November 2026 soybeans settled at $11.82¼ per bushel, down 6¾ cents on Monday, while January 2027 futures closed at $11.88¼, losing 5½ cents.

The market finished near session lows, with weakness also extending into soybean oil. Soymeal futures were mixed, reflecting differing sentiment across the soybean product complex.

Attention now turns to Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, where potential increases to US yield, production and ending-stock estimates could influence the market’s next direction.

Soybean Market Snapshot

Current Soybean Price Action

Soybean futures closed lower across the board, with contracts losing between 1 and 6¾ cents and finishing near session lows.

November 2026 futures settled at $11.82¼ per bushel, while January 2027 contracts finished at $11.88¼. March 2027 soybeans closed at $11.95, and November 2027 futures settled at $11.74½.

The cmdtyView national average cash soybean price declined 5¼ cents to $11.25, while new-crop cash beans fell 3 cents to $11.06.

The weakness extended into the soybean product complex. Soybean oil futures declined between 7 and 23 points, while soymeal contracts were mixed, ranging from losses of $3.20 to gains of $1.50, with nearby contracts leading the stronger side of the market.

US Soybean Harvest Nears Completion

USDA Crop Progress data showed that 92% of the US soybean crop had been harvested as of Sunday.

Harvest progress is now one percentage point ahead of the average pace, indicating that the US crop is moving towards completion slightly faster than normal.

With most harvesting activity already finished, attention is shifting increasingly towards final production estimates, ending stocks and export demand.

Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production report will provide the next important assessment of the size of the US crop.

Export Demand Remains Strong Despite Weekly Decline

USDA Export Inspections data showed soybean shipments of 1.896 million metric tonnes, equivalent to 69.67 million bushels, in the week ended November 5.

Shipments declined 24.5% from the previous week but remained 68.6% above the same week last year.

China was the largest destination, receiving 1.266 million tonnes. Mexico received 176,994 tonnes, while Bangladesh accounted for 171,187 tonnes.

Marketing-year shipments have reached 14.14 million tonnes, or 519.74 million bushels, representing an increase of 58.3% year-on-year.

The strong cumulative growth provides an important source of support for the soybean market, although the latest weekly decline highlights the potential for shipment volumes to fluctuate.

USDA Reports: Yield and Ending Stocks in Focus

Tuesday’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports represent the immediate market catalyst.

A Bloomberg survey of analysts expects the US soybean yield estimate to increase by 0.4 bushel per acre to 53.5 bushels per acre.

If realised, production would rise by 34 million bushels from the previous estimate to approximately 4.596 billion bushels.

The WASDE report is also expected to show US soybean ending stocks increasing by 17 million bushels to 332 million bushels.

These are market expectations rather than confirmed USDA figures. Any deviation from the forecasts could produce a significant response in futures prices, particularly if the final estimates point towards a larger supply balance.

US Soybean Acreage Outlook for 2027/28

USDA’s annual baseline projections indicate a potential increase in soybean acreage for the 2027/28 season.

The agency’s preliminary projection places soybean plantings at 87.5 million acres, compared with 86.9 million acres for the current year.

Although these projections remain forward-looking estimates, the potential increase in planted area will be another factor for traders monitoring longer-term US supply prospects.

Brazilian Soybean Planting Progress

Brazil’s soybean planting campaign is progressing ahead of last year’s pace.

According to AgRural, 64% of the country’s soybean area had been planted as of Thursday, compared with 61% at the same point last year.

The faster planting pace provides an important early indication of crop development in one of the world’s largest soybean-producing countries.

Brazilian production will remain central to the global supply outlook as the South American growing season progresses.

Bullish Soybean Market Sentiment

1. Strong cumulative exports: US marketing-year shipments have increased 58.3% year-on-year to 14.14 million tonnes.
2. China demand: China accounted for 1.266 million tonnes of the latest weekly export inspections, remaining the dominant destination.
3. Harvest nearing completion: With 92% harvested, the market will increasingly focus on final production figures and the balance between supply and demand.
4. Export performance: Despite the weekly decline, shipments remain substantially higher than the comparable period last year.
5. Potential demand resilience: Strong imports and sustained international buying could help absorb additional US and South American supply.

Bearish Soybean Market Sentiment

1. Higher yield expectations: Analysts expect the USDA to raise the US yield forecast to 53.5 bushels per acre.
2. Larger production estimate: Expected production of 4.596 billion bushels would add approximately 34 million bushels to the previous estimate.
3. Rising ending stocks: Forecast US ending stocks of 332 million bushels would represent an increase of 17 million bushels.
4. Weekly shipment decline: Export inspections fell 24.5% from the previous week.
5. Brazilian planting progress: Planting is ahead of last year’s pace, with 64% completed.
6. Potential acreage expansion: USDA’s preliminary 2027/28 projection indicates an increase in US soybean acreage to 87.5 million acres.

Soybean Price Forecast: What Traders Should Watch

The immediate direction for soybean futures will depend heavily on Tuesday’s USDA reports.

If yield, production and ending-stock estimates increase in line with market expectations, traders may interpret the figures as confirmation of a larger US supply outlook. This could maintain pressure on nearby contracts.

However, export demand remains an important counterweight. Marketing-year shipments are substantially higher than last year, with China accounting for the largest share of the latest inspected volumes.

The market will also monitor Brazilian planting progress as the South American crop develops. A faster planting pace could reinforce expectations of additional global supply, although the available data do not yet establish the final production outcome.

For the coming session, the USDA’s updated yield and ending-stock figures will be the most immediate determinants of market sentiment.

Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions

Soybeans enter Tuesday’s session under pressure, with futures closing near their lows as traders position ahead of the USDA reports.

The central issue is whether stronger export demand can offset the possibility of higher US production and ending stocks. Current shipment figures remain encouraging, but the latest weekly decline and progress in Brazil’s planting campaign provide reasons for caution.

The November and January contracts will remain sensitive to the USDA’s updated supply estimates, while the broader soybean complex will also respond to changes in meal and oil prices.

The next major directional move is likely to depend on whether the USDA figures confirm expectations for a larger crop or deliver a surprise that changes the current supply outlook.

Today Markets Analysis

The soybean market is approaching an important supply assessment, with Tuesday’s USDA reports likely to determine the immediate direction of prices.

Monday’s decline reflects caution ahead of potentially higher yield, production and ending-stock estimates. However, strong cumulative US export shipments provide evidence of robust international demand, with China remaining the leading destination.

Brazil’s planting progress is also important, particularly as the global market begins looking beyond the US harvest towards South American production.

For traders, the priority is to assess the USDA’s updated supply figures against the strength of export demand. A larger crop could reinforce selling pressure, while stronger-than-expected demand or a lower-than-anticipated production estimate could provide support.

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Risk Disclaimer

This market analysis is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Agricultural commodity and foreign-exchange markets involve significant risk, and prices can move rapidly in response to crop conditions, supply and demand, weather, economic data and government reports. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Traders and investors should conduct their own research and consider their financial circumstances and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions.

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