US Wheat Futures Mixed as Spring Wheat Gains Despite Weak Export Demand

Today Markets Analysis

US wheat futures finished Monday’s session mixed, with spring wheat posting the strongest gains while Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) futures came under modest pressure. Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW) contracts were largely unchanged, reflecting a market balancing improving US crop conditions against continued weakness in export demand.

The December 2026 CBOT wheat contract settled at $5.88 per bushel, down 3¼ cents, while March 2027 futures declined 2¼ cents to $6.00½. In contrast, Minneapolis spring wheat advanced, supported by stronger buying interest.

Wheat Market Snapshot

US Winter Wheat Planting Progress

The latest USDA Crop Progress report showed that 89% of the US winter wheat crop had been planted as of November 8, slightly behind the five-year average of 90%.

Crop emergence reached 76%, running two percentage points ahead of the normal pace. More encouragingly, US winter wheat condition ratings improved by five percentage points to 49% good/excellent. The Brugler500 index also advanced 10 points to 337, indicating an improvement in overall crop health.

The improving condition ratings provide some reassurance regarding the developing US crop and could limit upside potential in winter wheat futures if favourable weather conditions persist.

US Wheat Export Demand Remains Weak

USDA’s latest Export Inspections report showed wheat shipments of just 248,543 metric tonnes (9.13 million bushels) for the week ending November 5.

Although shipments increased approximately 2.4 times compared with the previous week, they remained 14.72% below the corresponding period last year.

Vietnam was the largest destination, receiving 68,469 tonnes, followed by Mexico with 55,847 tonnes and Nigeria with 52,344 tonnes.

Total US wheat shipments since the beginning of the marketing year on June 1 reached 7.804 million tonnes (286.75 million bushels), representing a substantial 35.6% decline compared with the same period last year.

The persistent weakness in export performance remains one of the principal bearish factors for US wheat prices, particularly as competing exporters continue to influence international supply availability.

USDA WASDE Report in Focus

Market attention is now turning towards Tuesday’s USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

Bloomberg’s analyst survey indicates expectations for US wheat ending stocks to increase by approximately 4 million bushels to 744 million bushels.

An upward revision would reinforce concerns about domestic supply availability, particularly if accompanied by weaker export projections or changes to global production estimates.

Traders will also assess whether the USDA adjusts its international supply and demand forecasts, with particular attention on major exporting countries.

US Wheat Acreage Outlook

USDA’s annual baseline projections released Monday indicated a potential increase in US wheat acreage to 44 million acres for the 2027/28 marketing year.

This compares with an estimated 42.5 million acres for the current year. Although these are preliminary projections rather than confirmed planting intentions, the potential increase suggests a larger production base could emerge over the longer term.

If realised, additional acreage could contribute to increased supply expectations and place further pressure on prices unless demand strengthens accordingly.

Global Wheat Supply and Export Developments

International production and export estimates remain mixed.

APK-Inform raised its estimate for Ukraine’s 2026 wheat crop to 26.5 million tonnes, an increase of 1 million tonnes from its previous forecast. The upward revision adds to expectations of improved regional availability.

Meanwhile, SovEcon lowered its estimate for Russian wheat exports during the 2026/27 season to 36 million tonnes, down 700,000 tonnes from its previous projection.

The reduction in Russian export expectations could provide some support to international wheat prices, although the broader global supply outlook remains competitive.

International Import Demand

Import demand is also attracting attention, with Algeria issuing a wheat import tender with a deadline for offers on November 11.

Turkey has separately issued a tender for 400,000 tonnes of wheat, with offers due by November 17.

These tenders could provide important indications of international buying interest and the competitiveness of US wheat against supplies from Russia, Europe and other major exporting regions.

Bullish Sentiment

1. Stronger Minneapolis wheat: Spring wheat futures advanced by 5½ to 6 cents, demonstrating relative strength compared with Chicago contracts.
2. Reduced Russian export outlook: SovEcon’s downward revision to Russian export estimates could tighten expectations for available export supplies.
3. International tender activity: Import demand from Algeria and Turkey provides potential opportunities for additional export business.
4. Improving Ukrainian production uncertainty: Although Ukraine’s crop estimate increased, logistical and regional supply developments remain important considerations for global pricing.

Bearish Sentiment

1. Weak US export performance: Marketing-year shipments remain 35.6% below last year’s pace, highlighting significant demand concerns.
2. Improving US crop conditions: Winter wheat good/excellent ratings increased to 49%, reducing concerns about early-season crop development.
3. Higher US ending stocks expectations: Analysts anticipate a 4-million-bushel increase in domestic wheat stocks in Tuesday’s WASDE report.
4. Potential acreage expansion: Preliminary projections point towards 44 million US wheat acres in 2027/28, potentially increasing future production.
5. Competitive global supply: Higher Ukrainian production estimates and continued competition among exporters could limit international price recovery.

Wheat Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching

The immediate direction for wheat futures will depend heavily on Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report and whether the agency confirms expectations for higher US ending stocks.

Chicago SRW futures remain vulnerable to continued weakness in export demand, while improving winter wheat conditions provide an additional supply-side consideration.

Kansas City HRW futures are showing relative stability, although the absence of stronger export demand may restrict meaningful upside.

Minneapolis spring wheat has demonstrated greater resilience, with stronger closing prices suggesting some underlying buying interest in the spring wheat market.

Supply Outlook

The US winter wheat crop is progressing broadly in line with seasonal expectations, with planting slightly behind the five-year average but emergence ahead of schedule.

Improving crop ratings are a positive development for production prospects. Internationally, the increase in Ukraine’s crop estimate contrasts with reduced Russian export expectations, leaving the global supply picture mixed.

Demand Outlook

US export demand remains the key concern. Although weekly shipments improved, the cumulative marketing-year deficit remains substantial.

Algeria’s and Turkey’s upcoming tenders could provide fresh indications of international demand and determine whether US wheat can become more competitive in export markets.

Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions

Wheat futures enter Tuesday’s session with a cautious and divided outlook. Chicago prices remain under pressure from weak export demand and expectations of higher domestic stocks, while spring wheat continues to demonstrate relative strength.

The USDA WASDE report will be the principal near-term catalyst. A larger-than-expected increase in ending stocks could place additional pressure on Chicago and Kansas City contracts, whereas tighter global supply projections or stronger export demand could offer support.

For the coming sessions, traders will be watching USDA supply revisions, international tender results, US crop development and evidence of improving export competitiveness.

The market currently faces a delicate balance between improving production prospects and the possibility of tighter international export availability.

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Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading futures and commodities involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors.

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