Bund Yields Ease as Oil Prices Retreat

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield fell to 3.03%, down from a near two-month high of 3.09% on Thursday, as crude prices declined amid resumed US-Iran peace talks following recent hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier this week, oil prices had surged to two-week highs after US President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire over, though he noted Tehran’s continued interest in a deal. Still, yields rose 10 bps this week, the largest increase in five weeks, driven by expectations of further European Central Bank tightening. The ECB raised rates at its June meeting for the first time since 2023, and investors anticipate two more hikes over the next year to counter the inflationary impact of rising fuel costs from the Iran conflict. ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras said the bank is “back to square one” in its inflation fight due to rising oil prices from the Iran conflict. On the political front, Germany approved a 2027 budget draft with €555.4 billion in spending and higher borrowing.

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