S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is effectively flat versus the US Dollar (USD) but modestly outperforming other majors, trading close to their fair value estimate around 1.40. With CAD-specific news limited, USD/CAD remains driven by external factors and stabilized US/Canada spreads. Technicals stay USD-bearish, with downside focus on a break below 1.3970/80 and fading rallies toward 1.41.
CAD trades near fair value versus Dollar
“The CAD is effectively flat against the USD and outperforming most of the major currencies modestly on the day as a result.”
“CAD-specific news remains scant and the trend in funds remains largely contingent on external developments. US/Canada spreads have stabilized and broader risk appetite remains positive—while the tech/AI cycle holds.”
“The trend in relative US/Canada data surprises has turned a little more positive for the CAD in recent weeks. Trade concerns remain a background niggle ahead of the August 19 deadline for President Trump’s latest tariff salvo.”
“Our fair value estimate for spot sits just above 1.40 this morning (1.4006), suggesting that the CAD is more or less right where it should be. “
“Bearish—There is little change in the CAD’s technical position. Broader chart pointers continue to lean USD-bearish after the negative technical close on the week through last Friday.”
“The CAD still needs to secure a break under 1.3970/80 (former high/retracement support) to drive the next phase of gains, however. Technicals suggest fading moderate USD gains to the 1.41 zone.”
