Chart of the Day – US100 ahead of Nvidia earnings – will semiconductors get hit or get fresh fuel?

The Nasdaq 100 futures contract ( US100 ) will be closely watched by global markets today ahead of earnings from Nvidia (NVDA.US), the world’s largest listed company by market capitalization, due after the U.S. market close. The results are likely to shape investor sentiment toward chipmakers and sectors linked to AI infrastructure. Investors expect the company to report nearly 100% year-over-year revenue growth, but simply beating consensus and raising guidance may not be enough to push sentiment materially higher. To reignite momentum across semiconductors, Nvidia may need to surprise investors with something genuinely new or provide more detail on developments that have appeared in global media over recent weeks. One such development is the reported 15% price increase for Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell server infrastructure. If the company raises its margin outlook while maintaining strong sales guidance, the semiconductor sector could regain momentum, potentially supporting a move in US100 back above 30,000 points. If Nvidia delivers excellent numbers but fails to offer any meaningful new catalyst, the market reaction could be mixed. In a negative-surprise scenario affecting any of the key metrics, a pullback toward around 28,600 points cannot be ruled out, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downward move.

• Wolfe Research data indicate that momentum stocks are struggling to reclaim key 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which are currently acting as resistance.
• This weakness increases the importance of Nvidia’s earnings, which could determine the short-term direction of a broad group of growth and semiconductor stocks, where capital has been concentrated to an unprecedented degree over the past two years.
• The Nasdaq 100 currently trades at an average P/E ratio of around 23x, compared with roughly 30x at the peak of the dot-com boom and a 20-year average of about 20x. Valuations therefore remain demanding, but so far they have been supported by strong fundamentals, including the AI investment boom and rapid earnings growth.

US100 chart (D1 interval)

Over the past 30 days, US100 has gained around 4%, but the index has also gone through several weaker sessions and failed to remain above 30,000 points for long. The key resistance levels today are 29,500 and 30,000 points, while important support zones to watch are 28,600, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and 28,000 points. The index recently found support around the EMA200 and has maintained its medium-term upward trend since then, despite the loss of momentum seen over the past few weeks.

Source: xStation5

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