ING economists Lynn Song and Min Joo Kang expect China’s February CPI inflation to pick up to 1.0% year-on-year, mainly due to Lunar New Year effects, while the impact of higher Oil prices should appear later. They also project solid growth in exports and imports over the first two months, resulting in a larger trade surplus.

Lunar New Year to lift CPI

“China will release its CPI inflation data for February next Monday. We are expecting CPI to rise to 1.0% year-on-year thanks to a boost from the Lunar New Year effect. The impact of higher oil prices from the Middle East conflict likely won’t be seen until the March data.”

“China’s trade data for the first two months of the year is also scheduled for publication on Tuesday. “

“The divergence of PMI data suggests that external demand likely remained resilient to start the year, and we are looking for 9.3% YoY growth of exports and 8.5% YoY growth of imports over the first two months of the year, resulting in a trade surplus of $188.1bn.”

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