US data was very mixed yesterday and failed to provide a new directional catalyst for the dollar after the Venezuelan events, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Oil weakness caps USD upside after NFP

“ADP was close to consensus at 41k, and while their predictive power for official payrolls is limited, it may be fueling expectations that Friday’s numbers won’t be enough to price in more Fed easing for now. This may put a floor under the dollar today. That said, the other job release yesterday – November’s job openings – was quite soft and offset the strong ISM services print.”

“Interestingly, the dollar has held well against a backdrop of falling oil prices, with the commodities markets seemingly taking Trump’s plans for Venezuelan oil supply more seriously. Once the NFP risk event is cleared, this oil softness could weigh on the dollar and prevent it from rallying much further despite positive seasonality.”

“Remember that the US Supreme Court will rule on tariffs tomorrow. Consensus is leaning towards a negative ruling, which could prompt some USD strengthening. That’s because the tariff impact has been more marked on the jobs market than on inflation, and the reaction could see some hawkish repricing in the Fed curve.”

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