TD Securities expects China’s March exports to normalize after a strong Jan–Feb report, while imports could surprise on the upside as authorities stockpile key goods and commodities during the US–Iran conflict. Rising input costs may slow production and weigh on exports. The bank projects Q1 GDP at 4.8% y/y, supported by strong exports and manufacturing earlier in the quarter.

Stockpiling and costs shape China outlook

“After the phenomenal trade report in Jan-Feb, we expect some normalization in Mar for exports.”

“Imports, however, could surprise to the upside as China may rush to stockpile key goods and commodities amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict.”

“As input costs rise, we may see a slowdown in production which may be a drag on China’s exports growth in the near term.”

“Industrial production is likely to hold steady in Mar but rising input costs could change the calculus for firms’ output plans soon.”

“Retail sales may underwhelm as consumers brought forward their spending last month due to the CNY holidays and the early rollout of the consumer trade in prog subsidies.GDP should rise to 4.8% y/y in Q1 given strong exports and mfg over the qtr.”

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