Cotton futures eased to around 86 cents per pound in mid-May, slightly retreating from an over two-year high, as a firmer US dollar offset support from a WASDE report pointing to a tighter supply outlook. The USDA left 2025/26 cotton yield unchanged at 852 lbs per acre and projected production at 13.9 million bales, while old crop ending stocks were steady at 4.4 million bales. Looking ahead, 2026/27 production was estimated lower at 13.3 million bales, with ending stocks projected to fall to 3.9 million bales, signaling a tighter balance sheet. Meanwhile, US planting progress stood at 29% as of May 10, slightly ahead of the five-year average of 28%, suggesting broadly normal field conditions and limiting additional upside momentum in the near term. Elsewhere, markets are watching US weather conditions, with Texas, the main cotton belt, remaining mostly dry, which could reduce yield potential and reinforce expectations of tighter supply.

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