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Dow Jones futures rise as cooling inflation reduces Fed rate hike bets

  • Dow Jones futures advance as softer inflation data shifted market expectations regarding the upcoming Fed outlook.
  • Soft July US CPI data reduced market expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike.
  • Strong earnings from major AI companies boosted investor optimism across stock markets.
Dow Jones futures rise as cooling inflation reduces Fed rate hike bets

Akhtar FaruquiAkhtar FaruquiFXStreet

Dow Jones futures gain 0.08% to trade around 53,910 during European hours on Thursday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures rise by 0.09% to trade around 7,780 and Nasdaq 100 futures advance 0.06%, trading near 29,870.

US stock futures rise on shifting Federal Reserve (Fed) rate expectations following softer inflation metrics. July’s headline CPI dropped slightly to 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI cooled to 2.5%, matching market forecasts. Investors await US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for July due later in the day.

This cooling inflation has reinforced market expectations for a more accommodative Fed stance, with the CME FedWatch tool showing the probability of a September rate hike falling to roughly 36% from 48% a day earlier.

US stock indices closed mostly higher on Wednesday, buoyed by solid earnings from AI companies and a moderate CPI report. The Nasdaq jumped 0.7%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.3% to approach near-record levels, while the Dow Jones ended virtually flat.

AI boom seen colliding with national-security realities

Rabobank cautions that the current enthusiasm around AI is unlikely to be a one-way bet, warning that “there will also be tears.” The bank notes that, beyond “AI volatility and recent ‘permanent underclass’ fears,” the technology has become “such a national-security issue that it’s convenient that the private-sector is prepared to fund so many schemes exceeding the cost of the Manhattan Project, saving the state the expense, in the aim of… massive profits(?).” However, Rabobank argues that this public-good dimension could ultimately cap private returns, as “it’s the government –and military– that will likely want the fruits at the end, and cheaply.”

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