Philip Wee of DBS Group Research observes that the US Dollar (USD), as measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), has lost upside momentum after an earlier rebound. The index has stalled around 99 following a decline from 100.6 to just under 98 earlier in April. This comes as markets weigh Fed leadership uncertainty, G7 policy expectations and volatile Oil prices.

DXY pauses after earlier slide

“The DXY Index’s rebound has stalled around 99, following its decline from 100.6 to slightly below 98 in the first half of this month.”

“This week, currency markets face multiple cross-currents: volatile oil prices, Powell’s stance on whether he will remain as Fed Governor until Jan 2028, potential rate-hike pivots at G7 central bank meetings, and the War Powers Resolution vote and deadline.”

“The Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, and Bank of England are expected to remain on hold this week, but the market is pricing a hawkish pivot for rate hikes at their following meetings, diverging from expectations that Warsh’s confirmation would dampen the Fed’s high-for-longer USD premium.”

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