Economic Calendar – Another day of central bankers’ speeches. Is AUDUSD responding to inflation risks?

Today’s session is marked by numerous speeches from central bank representatives (RBA, ECB, Fed, and Bundesbank), which may trigger elevated volatility in foreign exchange markets. In the spotlight were comments from RBA Governor Bullock, who highlighted inflation risks stemming from the Middle East and demand pressure driven in part by the artificial intelligence sector. In addition, markets are tracking geopolitical and energy news. In Japan, markets remain closed due to a national holiday. In the fundamental data calendar, key releases will include UK public sector net borrowing and consumer confidence indicators for the Eurozone.

Key Releases from the Asian Session

• Speech by RBA Governor Bullock: The head of the Australian central bank noted that inflation risks stem from the situation in the Middle East and strong domestic demand. She emphasized that policy must address second-round effects, and unemployment at 4.5%–5.0% should help reduce price pressures.
• Speech by RBNZ Governor Breman: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand indicates that the economy continues an uneven recovery; however, persistently higher crude oil prices could push short-term inflation above previous forecasts.

Macroeconomic Calendar (Note: All times are in CET – Central European Time)

• 05:10 Australia – Speech by RBA Governor Bullock.
• 08:00 UK – Public sector net borrowing. Consensus: 15.2 bn. Previous: 1.8 bn.
• 10:30 Eurozone – Speech by Bundesbank President Nagel.
• 12:00 UK – CBI Industrial Trends Orders. Consensus: -33. Previous: -25.
• 13:00 Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Lagarde.
• 14:15 US – ADP Weekly Employment Change. Previous: 16.3k.
• 16:00 Eurozone – Consumer Confidence. Consensus: -16. Previous: -16.
• 16:00 US – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Consensus: 2. Previous: 4.
• 16:05 US – Speech by FOMC Member Williams.
• 16:20 US – Speech by FOMC Member Jefferson.
• 19:00 US – Speech by FOMC Member Barkin.
• 21:30 Eurozone – Speech by Bundesbank President Nagel.
• 22:30 US – API Weekly Statistical Bulletin.
• All day Japan – Market Holiday (National Holiday).

Markets to Watch

• AUDUSD: Remarks by RBA Governor Bullock regarding rising inflation risks and strong domestic demand put pressure on the Australian dollar valuation amid global interest rate differentials.
• EURUSD: Numerous speeches from ECB representatives (including President Lagarde and Bundesbank Chief Nagel) as well as fresh comments on cost pressures in Europe may determine the short-term direction of the common currency.
• GBPUSD: The release of domestic data on UK public sector net borrowing will directly impact government bond (Gilt) yields and the valuation of the pound.

AUDUSD: Correction in an Ongoing Uptrend

The Australian currency pair remains in a clear uptrend, which has continued uninterrupted since the March 2025 low near 0.5890 and is supported by an ascending trendline. Quotes reached strong resistance near 0.72752, where momentum faded before a breakout, and a clear correction has developed since then without altering the broader impulse. Currently, trading at 0.71213, the pair is testing a key support zone. The moving average layout still favors bulls as a bullish alignment remains intact, with the 50 SMA at 0.71094 positioned above the 200 SMA at 0.70668. However, price has pulled back below the 25 SMA at 0.71596, reflecting short-term downside pressure. The first key support lies near 0.70969—the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level—just alongside the 50 SMA. Defending this zone would preserve the scenario of a simple technical breather before the next upward leg. Holding above the 0.70970 to 0.71090 band keeps the door open for another attempt to test the 25 SMA at 0.71596, followed by the 0.72752 resistance barrier, a break of which would resume the rally. The bearish scenario activates only after a sustained move below the 50% retracement at 0.70526 and the 200 SMA at 0.70668, turning attention toward support at the 61.8% level (0.70084) and the ascending trendline. As long as prices hold above these levels, buyers retain the technical advantage.

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