Economic Calendar: Key European CPI Readings and Oil Giants’ Earnings

Global financial markets are seeing a clear improvement in sentiment and a stronger appetite for risk, following solid gains on Wall Street and a sharp rebound across Asian equity markets. The move has been supported by optimistic forecasts and strong results from the technology and semiconductor sectors. At the same time, investors remain alert to geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Oil prices are heading for a strong monthly close as markets continue to closely monitor developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, investors are actively assessing the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Today’s session will focus on key preliminary CPI inflation and GDP data from the euro area, the US Core PCE reading, and earnings releases from major oil companies, including ExxonMobil and Chevron.

Key Releases from the Asian Session

Japan – Industrial Production (m/m) for June: Industrial production declined by 1.8% month-on-month, compared with expectations of a 1.2% decline and the previous reading of +3.6%. Japan – Retail Sales (y/y) for June: The reading came in at 1.7% year-on-year, versus a consensus forecast of 2.1% and a previous reading of 2.8%. China – NBS Manufacturing PMI for July: The index came in at 49.4 points, compared with market expectations of 49.3 points and a previous reading of 49.5 points. China – NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for July: The index came in at 50.2 points, compared with 50.5 points in the previous month. Australia – Retail Sales (m/m) for June: Retail sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month, exceeding the 0.2% consensus forecast, following a previous increase of 0.6%. Strong rebound in Asian equity markets: South Korea’s Kospi posted solid gains, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced on the back of strong sentiment in the technology sector. Gold is stabilising near USD 4,100 per ounce following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates unchanged, while Brent crude remains around USD 85 per barrel.

Macroeconomic Calendar

• 08:30 Switzerland – Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales (y/y) (June). Consensus: 3.1%. Previous reading: 3.5%.
• 08:45 France – Preliminary CPI Inflation (y/y) (July). Consensus: 1.8%. Previous reading: 1.8%.
• 08:45 France – Preliminary HICP Inflation (y/y) (July). Consensus: 2.1%. Previous reading: 2.0%.
• 09:30 Poland – Preliminary CPI Inflation (y/y) (July). Consensus: 3.0%. Previous reading: 2.5%.
• 09:55 Germany – Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate (July). Consensus: 6.3%. Previous reading: 6.3%.
• 11:00 Euro Area – Preliminary HICP Inflation (y/y) (July). Consensus: 2.9%. Previous reading: 2.8%.
• 11:00 Euro Area – Preliminary Core HICP Inflation (y/y) (July). Consensus: 2.4%. Previous reading: 2.4%.
• 14:30 Canada – Monthly GDP (m/m) (May). Consensus: 0.2%. Previous reading: 0.5%.
• 15:45 United States – Chicago PMI (July). Consensus: 56.7. Previous reading: 56.7.
• 19:00 United States – Oil Rig Count (weekly). Consensus: 451. Previous reading: 450.

Corporate Earnings (Wall Street / Europe)

Before the market open:

• Exxon Mobil Corporation (Wall Street)
• Chevron Corporation (Wall Street)
• AbbVie Inc. (Wall Street)
• Colgate-Palmolive Company (Wall Street)
• Enbridge Inc. (Wall Street / Canada)
• NatWest Group plc (Europe)
• Engie S.A. (Europe)

Three Markets to Watch

• EUR/USD – due to the concentrated set of key macroeconomic releases from the euro area, including CPI inflation and GDP data, alongside the US Core PCE reading.
• Crude Oil (WTI / Brent) – due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and today’s earnings releases from major oil companies, including ExxonMobil and Chevron.
• Technology Sector / US Equity Indices (Nasdaq / S&P 500) – as investors assess the market’s direction following a series of earnings releases from major technology companies and the broader recovery in global risk sentiment.

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