Equities: Consumer sectors under pressure from energy shock – Danske Bank

Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team observes that global equities closed lower on Tuesday, with Energy the only sector in positive territory as Oil prices surged. The bank notes that selling was concentrated in consumer discretionary and staples, reflecting concerns that higher energy costs will hurt consumers. Despite equities being up over 10% year to date, consumer discretionary is now the worst-performing sector, down more than 5%.

Consumer complex bears brunt of selloff

“Equities closed lower across regions yesterday as oil gained another 4%. Oil has now risen in ten of the past eleven sessions, advancing almost 30% over that period. Unsurprisingly, Energy was the only sector in positive territory.”

“The more revealing signal came from the rest of the market. Excluding Energy, this was not a conventional defensive rotation. Instead, the selling was concentrated in the consumer complex, with consumer discretionary leading the decline but consumer staples also under pressure. Investors increasingly view consumers as the main casualty of higher energy prices and are reducing exposure accordingly.”

“Despite the broader equity market still being up more than 10% year to date, consumer discretionary is the worst performing sector and is down more than 5%. Importantly, neither consumer discretionary nor consumer staples has experienced the largest earnings downgrades.”

“The underperformance therefore reflects investors demanding a higher risk premium in the consumer sectors rather than merely responding to weaker earnings estimates.”

“Oil is easing from its highs this morning, supporting Asian equities, while European and US futures are marginally higher.”

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