ING strategist Francesco Pesole notes that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and hawkish MPC members Catherine Mann and Megan Greene speak today, with Greene recently sounding more balanced. ING expects Bailey to signal a pause, and maintains the view that the BoE will not hike further this year, which they see as consistent with a move to 0.88 in EUR/GBP.

BoE pause view underpins EUR/GBP outlook

“Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks in New York this afternoon. Earlier in the day, the two most hawkish MPC members, Catherine Mann and Megan Greene, are also due to deliver remarks. Greene has actually been rather balanced in recent comments, highlighting the dual impact of higher inflation and lower demand from the oil shock.”

“Bailey may well retain a balanced tone himself, implicitly signalling that a pause is the preferred course of action for now.”

“We remain of the view that the BoE won’t hike rates (market pricing 45bp by year-end), which should help a move to 0.88 in EUR/GBP.”

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