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- EUR/USD attracts some buyers for the third straight day as the US-Iran peace deal undermines the USD.
- The ECB’s hawkish outlook benefits the shared currency and further lends support to the currency pair.
- Traders, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for the highly anticipated FOMC interest rate decision.
The EUR/USD pair trades with a positive bias for the third straight day and holds steady above the 1.1600 mark through the Asian session on Wednesday. Bulls, however, seem hesitant and opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting before positioning for an extension of the recent goodish recovery from the 1.1500 psychological mark, or over a two-month low, touched last week.
The latest optimism over an interim peace deal between the US and Iran keep the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) on the defensive, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. The shared currency, on the other hand, draws support from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) hawkish signal following an interest rate hike for the first time in three years. In fact, the ECB raised its 2026 inflation projections to 3% amid prolonged energy shocks and broadening price pressures across the eurozone.
Furthermore, traders are still pricing in a roughly 40 basis points in additional hikes for 2026 by the ECB despite the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US and Iran agreed to a framework peace deal intended to end the war that began earlier in 2026. The initial memorandum of understanding (MOU) establishes a 60-day ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and sets the stage for technical negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. However, other details about the agreement remain scarce.
This, along with expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might still hike interest rates by 25 bps in December, holds back the USD bears from placing aggressive bets and caps the upside for the EUR/USD pair. Hence, market focus will remain glued to the crucial Fed rate decision, the latest economic projections, and the so-called dot plot. Adding to this, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh’s comments during the post-meeting presser will be scrutinized for cues about the future policy path.
