Instead of continuing to rise, EUR is more likely to consolidate between 1.1690 and 1.1770. In the longer run, risk for EUR remains on the upside; the probability of it breaking above 1.1805 is not high for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Risk for EUR remains on the upside

24-HOUR VIEW: “EUR lifted off on the open yesterday and surged to a high of 1.1768 before easing. EUR closed higher by 0.68% at 1.1724, its largest one-day gain in more than four months. The sharp rise seems excessive, and instead of continuing to rise, EUR is more likely to consolidate today, probably between 1.1690 and 1.1770.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “EUR opened on a soft note on Monday, but it has since rallied sharply, reaching a high of 1.1768 yesterday. While the sharp rally seems overextended, there is scope for EUR to continue to rise. However, the probability of it breaking above 1.1805, near last month’s high, is not high for now. Meanwhile, the risk for EUR remains on the upside, provided that it does not break below 1.1560 (‘strong support’ level).”

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