Euro: Range phase after failed upside break against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD briefly spiked to 1.1562 on the US CPI release before reversing to 1.1524. They now see further pullback risks contained within 1.1510–1.1545 intraday and judge that upward momentum has faded, with the pair likely to range-trade between 1.1480 and 1.1580 over the coming 1–3 weeks.

Euro-Dollar momentum fades into consolidation

“24-HOUR VIEW: After EUR traded in a quiet manner two days ago and closed largely unchanged at 1.1540, we highlighted the following yesterday: “The price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect EUR to trade between 1.1530 and 1.1560. That said, should EUR break above 1.1560, it could trigger a quick rise toward 1.1580.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected. EUR spiked to a high of 1.1562 during the NY session and then pulled back sharply to close slightly lower at 1.1524 (-0.14%). Further pullback is not ruled out, but given that downward momentum has not increased significantly, any decline is likely to be contained within a 1.1510/1.1545 range.”

“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Two days ago (11 Aug, spot at 1.1545), we highlighted that “the hurdle for further gains has risen,” and EUR “must close above 1.1580 before a move to 1.1600 and beyond can be expected.” Yesterday, EUR rose briefly to 1.1562 and then pulled back to a low of 1.1519. Although our ‘strong support’ level at 1.1515 has not been breached yet, upward momentum has largely faded. EUR appears to have entered a range-trading phase. For the time being, we expect EUR to trade within a 1.1480/1.1580 range.”

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