Euro (EUR) could edge lower and the major support at 1.1650 may be tested. In the longer run, price action suggests EUR could decline to 1.1650; it is too early to determine in if it could maintain a foothold below this level, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Price action suggests EUR could decline

24-HOUR VIEW: “The following are excerpts from our update yesterday: ‘The slight increase in downward momentum suggests EUR is likely to edge lower today, but any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 1.1650’. EUR subsequently dipped to a low of 1.1671, closing modestly lower by 0.12% at 1.1673. Downward momentum remains mild, and we continue to expect EUR to edge lower today. This time around, the major support at 1.1650 may be tested. On the upside, a breach of 1.1705 (with minor resistance at 1.1690) would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We highlighted two days ago (06 Jan, spot at 1.1715) that ‘while the bias remains tilted to the downside, EUR must close below 1.1680 before a move toward 1.1650 can be expected’. Yesterday, EUR closed at 1.1673 (-0.12%). While we would have preferred a lower close, the price action suggest EUR could decline to 1.1650. A break below this level is not ruled out, but it is too early to determine if EUR can maintain a foothold below this level. Overall, only a breach of 1.1730 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 1.1755 yesterday) would indicate that the downward bias has faded.”

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