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AED • EUR • GBP • USD IBANs   |   CROSS BORDER FX   |   LOCAL CURRENCIES   |   GLOBAL COVERAGE
EuroTechnical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Multiple headwinds for Euro backs downside bias

  • EUR/USD rises to near 1.1230 at the expense of the US Dollar.
  • Investors keenly await Meta Q3 earnings.
  • French fiscal woes and Russia-Ukraine tensions keep the Euro under pressure.

The Euro (EUR) is up 0.15% at around 1.1230 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair gains as the US Dollar is under pressure ahead of Meta Q3 earnings on Wednesday.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.16% lower to near 101.80. The DXY has been under pressure for a week amid concerns regarding the continuation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) spending by United States (US) hyperscalers.

US Dollar Price Last 7 Days

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.68%-0.94%-0.25%-1.41%-0.33%-1.55%-1.23%
EUR0.68%-0.23%0.44%-0.75%0.37%-0.85%-0.54%
GBP0.94%0.23%0.70%-0.46%0.61%-0.62%-0.25%
JPY0.25%-0.44%-0.70%-1.13%-0.00%-1.28%-0.85%
CAD1.41%0.75%0.46%1.13%1.09%-0.18%0.22%
AUD0.33%-0.37%-0.61%0.00%-1.09%-1.22%-0.86%
NZD1.55%0.85%0.62%1.28%0.18%1.22%0.44%
CHF1.23%0.54%0.25%0.85%-0.22%0.86%-0.44%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

The third quarter earnings report by Meta would reflect whether hyperscalers are stick to their investment agenda what they committed in previous quarters.

According to Goldman Sachs, Meta is one of five AI hyperscalers expected to increase combined capital expenditure to about $1.2 trillion next year, Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, the Euro is broadly under pressure due to continued tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and French fiscal risks.

Euro underperforms as French assets lag and geopolitical worries build

Strategists at Scotiabank highlight that the Euro is underperforming, pointing to “widespread and violent protests across France against poor conditions in schools and hospitals and broader concerns about affordability” as a key drag on sentiment. They add that French equities and fixed income have come under particular pressure, noting that “French stocks and bonds are underperforming and bond spreads versus Germany have widened to 145bps, sitting at the top of the (recent) historic range.”

Geopolitical risk is also feeding into the cautious tone. Scotiabank flags comments from President Zelenskyy, who said “the US is pushing Ukraine, not Russia to concede,” which the bank suggests is adding to broader geopolitical concerns around the Euro complex.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1232, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot remains below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1274. The pair’s inability to reclaim this EMA suggests that recent bounces are still capped by overhead supply, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 40.28 recovers from oversold territory but stays below the midline, hinting at only modest improvement in downside momentum rather than a clear bullish shift.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-period EMA at 1.1274, which acts as the first barrier that bulls would need to overcome to ease the current downside bias and open the way for a more sustained corrective phase. On the downside, the October 14 low at 1.1113 is the key support level.

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