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United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD has rebounded strongly from 1.1112 to close at 1.1218, more than reversing the prior day’s losses. Short-term momentum looks overextended, with the pair expected to trade between 1.1180 and 1.1240 intraday. On a 1–3 week view, EUR is now seen in a broader 1.1160–1.1280 range after breaking 1.1220 resistance.
Euro-Dollar shifts into consolidation band
“24-HOUR VIEW: EUR plunged two days ago and then rebounded strongly to close at 1.1156 (-0.38%). When EUR was at 1.1180 in the early Asian session yesterday, we indicated that “the recovery has scope to extend but any advance should stay within a 1.1155/1.1205 range.” We were incorrect, as EUR rose to 1.1240 before easing slightly to close 0.56% higher at 1.1218. The sharp advance appears to be overextended. This, combined with early signs of slowing momentum, suggests EUR is unlikely to rise much further. Today, we expect EUR to trade in a range between 1.1180 and 1.1240.”
“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have been holding a negative EUR view for more than a month. After EUR dropped to 1.1112 and rebounded strongly, we highlighted the following yesterday (15 Oct, spot at 1.1180): “Further EUR weakness is not ruled out, but the decline from last month appears to be overextended, both time-wise and price-wise. However, only a breach of 1.1220 ( ‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that EUR is not declining further.” EUR subsequently rose and broke above 1.1220 with a high of 1.1240. EUR has likely entered a range-trading phase, and for the time being, it is likely to trade between 1.1160 and 1.1280.”
