RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets discusses how the Federal Reserve’s new task force on inflation frameworks under Chair Warsh may elevate trimmed inflation in policy decisions. The report argues that, despite higher energy prices, trimmed inflation’s stability since the war could justify further rate cuts, aligning with President Trump’s rate preferences, while warning that trimmed measures can also imply hawkishness and slow Fed reactions.

Fed focus shifts to trimmed inflation

“With the Fed’s new task force on inflation frameworks – announced at Warsh’s first press conference as Fed Chair – we could see trimmed inflation measures gain increased prominence in monetary policy decision-making.”

“In the current circumstances, despite a sharp rise in energy prices, trimmed inflation – which has barely moved since the outbreak of the war – could actually support additional rate cuts rather than a hike.”

“This is where Warsh’s preferred measure of inflation aligns with President Trump’s preferences for rate policy.”

“However, trimmed inflation is not inherently dovish.”

“By discarding extremely inflationary items, trimmed inflation suppresses not only noise but also signals.”

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