Gasoline futures surged past $2.7 per gallon, the highest since April 2024 as an escalating Middle East conflict and President Trump’s rigid demand for unconditional Iranian surrender signaled that no near-term de-escalation is likely to ease global supply constraints. This near 20% weekly rally is the strongest since 2022 as markets respond to potential production halts by Persian Gulf exporters and the disruption of vital shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. With EIA data confirming a third consecutive weekly drawdown of 1.7 million barrels in US gasoline stocks the physical tightness is compounded by China ordering major refiners to prioritize domestic supply. While the US administration is granting waivers for Indian purchases of Russian crude to offset deficits the market remains fixated on the risk of a shipping corridor shutdown.

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