US gasoline futures rose more than 2% to around $3.10 per gallon in early June, trimming recent losses amid ongoing uncertainty over a potential US–Iran peace agreement that could ease supply pressures. Both sides were reportedly working on revisions to a draft accord aimed at prolonging a ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, although signs of substantial progress remained limited. Further heightening uncertainty, tensions in Lebanon escalated as Israeli advances and clashes with Hezbollah raised spillover risks. Energy exports from the key region have been at a standstill since the first week of March, driving global oil inventories to drop at a record pace, per the IEA. Likewise, gasoline stocks in the US sank for the 15th consecutive week in May, as refineries have been operating at full capacity with feedstock from the SPR. Refinery capacity was also lower for motor gasoline as refiners switched to distillates in an attempt to prevent diesel and jet fuel shortages.

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