MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that the Bank of England’s unanimous hold and sharp front-end repricing have driven a notable rise in UK yields, supporting the Pound. He judges the rates move as somewhat overdone and warns that a worsening Middle East situation and higher energy prices could hit equities, reverse some tightening and erode GBP support from yields.

BoE shock and yield surge back Pound

“However, our conclusion following the scale of the moves yesterday is that the rates moves look a little overdone.”

“However, we maintain that if the situation in the Middle East continues to worsen and energy prices advance further, the resilience of equity markets is likely to change and sharper falls in equities will likely see some of the scale of tightening priced being reversed.”

“The pound is deriving support from the surge in yields (although less support than usual for such a scale of rates move) and that will likely give way if broader risk conditions worsen.”

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