TD Securities’ Ryan McKay notes that Gold is struggling to recover as renewed tariffs and US-Iran tensions fuel an inflationary impulse and push expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) hike into early 2027. He highlights that CTA’s (Commodity Trading Advisors) see Gold nearing an immediate selling trigger around $4,470/oz, with positioning likely to turn more negative in flat or declining markets.

CTA triggers cap Gold recovery

“Precious metals continue to be hit by the inflationary impulse, as President Trump proposes new tariffs on major trading partners, while the US and Iran have traded another round of attacks.”

“As inflation concerns continue to see expectations of a Fed hike priced in by at least early-2027, gold is finding it hard to muster any serious recovery.”

“For CTAs, the yellow [metal] is nearing an immediate selling trigger near $4470/oz, and is still likely to see additional selling in a flat tape or down tape.”

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