Gold prices fell to around $4,040 per ounce on Monday, extending Friday’s decline, as investors awaited more US economic data for clearer signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Attention will mainly be on September’s retail sales and PPI figures due on Tuesday, along with weekly jobless claims on Wednesday. Expectations for a December rate cut have shifted after Fed President John Williams signaled support for another reduction in the near term. Markets are now pricing in roughly a 70% probability of a 25bps cut next month, compared to around 40% last Thursday following the release of strong jobs data. Still, bullion remains up around 54% year-to-date, underpinned by trade and geopolitical uncertainty, robust central bank buying, and sustained demand from investors seeking protection against fiscal risks.

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