Gold falls, silver hits lowest level since December 2025 – Deutsche Bank cuts gold forecast

Gold is down nearly 0.7% today, trading below $4,100 per ounce, as Deutsche Bank significantly revised its outlook for the precious metal market. The bank lowered its average gold price forecast for Q3 2026 to $4,300 per ounce and for Q4 2026 to $4,800 per ounce, representing cuts of more than 22% and 17%, respectively. As recently as April, Deutsche Bank had projected gold could rise toward $6,000 per ounce, citing fiscal deficits, de-dollarization trends, and reduced exposure to U.S. Treasuries by emerging-market central banks. The shift in outlook is largely driven by a more hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve policy expectations and continued strength in U.S. economic data. Deutsche Bank argues that Fed repricing and the resilience of the U.S. economy have become the primary headwinds for gold. Its base-case scenario assumes the Fed keeps rates unchanged through the end of 2026, but the bank warns that three to four additional rate hikes could push gold as low as $3,800 per ounce.

Why Are Gold and Silver Falling?

• Goldman Sachs also lowered its year-end gold forecast by $500 to $4,900 per ounce and no longer expects Fed rate cuts in 2026.
• Bank of America has stepped back from its previous $6,000 target, arguing that persistent inflation may require tighter monetary policy.
• Outflows from gold-backed ETFs suggest investor demand is significantly weaker than during previous bull markets.
• Discounts in Chinese gold prices relative to Comex indicate that Chinese imports are unlikely to provide meaningful support for the market.
• Central banks remain the strongest pillar of demand and are expected to continue supporting the market over the longer term.
• Gold has fallen more than 22% since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict at the end of February, despite traditionally benefiting from heightened geopolitical risk.
• Silver has performed even worse, losing roughly one-third of its value since late February and dropping more than 5% during the latest session.
• Gold futures ended Tuesday down approximately 1.3% near $4,149 per ounce, while spot prices briefly approached $4,090.
• The stronger U.S. dollar continues to weigh on precious metals, with the Dollar Index rising roughly 0.8% since the last Fed meeting.

Markets Await the PCE Inflation Report – GOLD Chart (D1)

The next major test for gold will be the upcoming U.S. PCE inflation report. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce the hawkish Fed narrative and provide further support for both the dollar and Treasury yields. For gold, this would represent a more challenging environment, as the metal does not generate income and competes directly with increasingly attractive yield-bearing assets. The current macro backdrop suggests that geopolitics alone is no longer sufficient to drive precious metals higher. As long as the U.S. economy remains resilient, the dollar stays strong, and the Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive stance, gold and silver may struggle to regain their previous upward momentum. Looking at the chart, gold is currently testing local lows in the $4,000–4,100 per ounce range, while the daily RSI has fallen to just under 34, approaching oversold territory. Recent sessions have also been characterized by predominantly selling volume.

Source: xStation5

Silver has already broken below its local March 23 low and briefly fell to its weakest level since mid-December 2025.

Source: xStation5

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