Heating oil hovered around $4.20 per gallon, on track for its largest monthly gain on record of more than 40%, tracking crude prices as roughly 20% of global oil flows remain disrupted. The supply shock stems from the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while renewed Houthi threats in the Red Sea raise the risk of disruptions along another key chokepoint.

Together, these factors could further constrain Middle Eastern energy flows, with two of the world’s main trade and supply corridors at risk. Throughout the month, reports of potential talks also surfaced, including recent indications that President Trump is now willing to end the military campaign in Iran even if the Strait remains largely closed, potentially increasing Tehran’s leverage over the key maritime route. However, markets remained skeptical, as this shift followed earlier threats to strike Iran’s electricity plants, oil facilities, and desalination infrastructure if the passageway is not reopened.

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