Commerzbank strategists note that USD/INR climbed to a new record high as elevated global Oil prices and firm domestic Dollar demand from importers weigh on the Indian currency. They highlight that Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) recent loosening of speculative FX curbs has renewed pressure on INR, while potential government emergency measures and Oil dynamics remain key for the pair in coming months.

Record high as Oil stays elevated

“In FX, USD-INR rose 0.3% to 95.63 yesterday, closing at a new record high.”

“This was driven by firm domestic dollar demand from importers as global oil prices remained elevated due to the conflict in the Middle East.”

“RBI’s decision in late April to loosen curbs on speculative FX positions has led to renewed pressure on INR.”

“There are reports that the government is weighing possible emergency measures to curb non-essential imports and reduce outflows to support the INR.”

“For now, elevated oil prices remain the key factor for INR.”

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