Iron ore futures climbed above CNY 780 per ton, reaching a five-week high as the expanding Middle East conflict threatened to disrupt global supply chains and push freight costs higher. The crisis has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for China’s steel exports to the Gulf. The region has become China’s second-largest export market, accounting for about 16% of shipments last year. Prices were also supported by China’s pledge to support the steel sector by curbing excess capacity. Economic planners at the National People’s Congress signaled plans for orderly cuts to steel output capacity, a move that could lift steel prices and improve profit margins. This, in turn, may strengthen demand for steelmaking raw materials such as iron ore. Chinese steel mills, however, continue to face pressure from persistent oversupply amid a prolonged property sector downturn, while exports are increasingly constrained by protectionist measures abroad.

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