The yield on Italy’s 10-year BTP climbed more than 10 bps to above 3.6%, approaching again the highest since April 2025, as investors increasingly expect a more hawkish stance from the European Central Bank amid renewed inflationary pressures. Geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict have pushed energy prices higher, reviving inflation concerns and prompting markets to reassess ECB policy expectations. Although oil has eased from above $100 per barrel, the earlier spike has already influenced rate outlooks. Money markets now price in a potential ECB rate hike later this year, a significant change from earlier expectations of a modest cut. On Tuesday, Christine Lagarde reaffirmed the ECB’s commitment to take decisive action to keep inflation in check, despite the pressures from higher energy costs.

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